Gust that took stage wasn't localized

INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) - On the heels of a stage equipment collapse that killed five people and injured 45 others, 24-Hour News 8 investigated the timeline of weather events and the warnings that preceded them.

Long before rains pounded the pavement and lightning lit the skies, the National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm watch. It was 5:57 p.m. It was sunny and warm, but conditions were ripe for storms, and Indiana State Fair leaders were warned.

According to the Indiana State Police, State Fair staff contacted the National Weather Service at 8 p.m. Meteorologists told fair leaders the storm would arrive about 9:15 p.m.

At 8:39 p.m., the National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Marion County. So at 8:45 p.m., fair leaders made an announcement about the possibility of severe weather and suggested areas to take shelter.

Four minutes later, at 8:49 p.m., the equipment, lighting and canopy over the stage collapsed, trapping fans beneath.

"It's not clear to me how anyone could have foreseen a sudden, highly localized blast of wind in one place," said Gov. Mitch Daniels during a late morning press conference.

Forecast 8 meteorologists say the blast of wind was indeed sudden, but it wasn't in just one place. Speedway and Plainfield saw sudden wind gusts of more than 70 mph — similar to the severe gusts that toppled the lighting and equipment at the fair. But fair officials may not have known those winds would sweep through the fairgrounds more than 25 minutes before the storm.

Forecast 8 Chief Meteorologist Steve Bray explained the way average citizens look at weather radar images — by taking a look at the areas of concentrated rain. He said he believes that fairground organizers were looking at the areas of heavy rain headed their way.

"What they didn't anticipate was this gust of wind coming out as much as 12 miles ahead of this line of storms,” he explained.

VIDEO | Watch Forecast 8 Chief Meteorologist Steve Bray explain Saturday's wind.

At 9:15 p.m., the rains started, drenching rescuers as they struggled get the injured to safety. While the storms arrived as predicted, severe gusts ahead of the storm ultimately caused this tragedy.

"The weather service did indicate that there was a threat for damaging winds a good 10 to 16 minutes out ahead of time," said Daniel McCarthy, Meteorologist in Charge at the National Weather Service.

Chief Meteorologist Steve Bray stresses that winds were an outflow of these storms, and the wind gusts moved further ahead of the storm as the storm progressed. This storm illustrates why it's extremely difficult to predict to the minute when high wind gusts might hit an area.