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Everything you need to know about our next round of wintry weather

INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — The first weekend of spring in central Indiana will look and feel more like mid-winter as a clipper system slips and slides through.

OVERVIEW: This storm is tricky from a forecast aspect because raw data, just 24 hours out, still has a widespread in output from less than 1 inch of snow in Indy on the low-end to 11 inch on the high-end. (Our forecast is below in the ‘HOW MUCH SNOW?’ category.) 

Another tricky aspect to Saturday’s forecast is the narrow width of the “snow zone.” Cold air will be pressing into this storm system from the northeast with gusts up to 35 mph or more at times through the first half of the weekend. (Could also lead to small drifts and blowing snow…)

That influx of cold air will create a narrow band of wintry weather, only 25-45 miles wide on average. Within that span, you’ll see a mix of light snow to heavy snow to sleet and maybe even a bit of freezing rain. Farther to the southwest of where the “snow zone” sets up, there will be a sharp drop-off from the wintry precip to just wet weather with no snow accumulation at all. A slight shift in the storm track of only 15-25 miles will make a big difference between whether or not you see no snow or a lot of snow.

TIMING: This is one part of this forecast that we have been fairly confident with for the past several days. Rain showers were sliding into southwestern Indiana on Friday evening. Most of the Indy metro will remain dry up until midnight Friday.

As cold air dives in, the rain will begin to transition to a wintry mix by 2-3 a.m. with the “snow zone” becoming a little more widespread by daybreak Saturday. If you have any plans that take you out the door early Saturday, make sure to expect delays within 35-45 miles in either direction of the I-74 corridor.

A Winter Weather adivsory (slightly lesser impact than a warning) will continue until 8 p.m. Saturday. A Winter Storm Warning is in place on both sides of us. The warning in place for our southeastern Indiana communities will expire 2 a.m. Sunday. On the outskirts of that warning, an advisory (slightly lesser impact) is in place for the same time period. 

We look to hold onto the wintry mix/rain through the afternoon and early evening Saturday before finally clearing out late Saturday evening. The good news is, with a high sun angle, clearing skies and highs well above the freezing point through the second half of the weekend, most of the snow that falls will be gone before the Monday morning commute.

HOW MUCH SNOW? IMPACTS? Here’s Saturday’s million-dollar question with a low-confidence answer. While we are confident on timing, we’re only moderately confident on the exact path of Saturday’s narrow “snow zone” and how much snow will fall within it. If temperatures rise enough Saturday afternoon to bring in more sleet and freezing rain, it will cut down our snow totals significantly. I do think we’ll catch a gap in the heavy snow here and there, so I’m not leaning towards the (absurd) 11 inch totals, but also think we’ll see more than 1 inch of heavy, wet snow. No matter how much snow you do end up getting, roads will be slick, so prepare for delays. 

A fair bet will be 3-6 inches in a 25-45-mile swath along and just south of the I-74 corridor. Isolated higher amounts up to 6-8 inch or more will be possible, just north of the freezing line. Directly outside of this narrow band of heavy snow (both to the north and south), totals will drop off sharply with a roughly 15-25-mile band of accumulation ranging from a dusting to 3 inches of snow/sleet.

To the southwest of the freezing line, an inch or more of rain is likely. While not a huge problem, flash flooding/flooding could occur, so be mindful if driving through low-lying areas.

While Saturday will be a mess, the wintry weather will not stick around long. Sunshine will return by Sunday, which will effectively melt away most of the snow before we head back to work or school Monday morning. Stay safe and stay tuned for final updates/tweaks to the forecast.

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