Who will prevail in the acting categories at the 91st Academy Awards?
(WISH) — Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell, and Allison Janney, last year’s acting winners at the 90th Academy Awards, will continue the long-running tradition of awarding this year’s victors.
Who’s likely to take the podium on Sunday, February 24? Here are my thoughts on how it’ll all shake out:
Best Actor
- Christian Bale – Vice as Dick Cheney
- Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born as Jackson “Jack” Maine
- Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate as Vincent Van Gogh
- Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody as Freddie Mercury
- Viggo Mortensen – Green Book as Frank “Tony Lip” Vallelonga
Bale, Cooper, Mortensen, and Malek have shown up at all of the precursors, so Dafoe should count his nomination as a win. Mortensen received negative press while promoting Green Book in the fall for using a racial slur, so count him out of the race.
Cooper shockingly missed a nomination for Best Director, so maybe A Star Is Born is not as beloved as people once thought?
The most competitive race of the four acting categories pits Bale against Malek.
Many are predicting Malek to prevail on his first nomination, following his wins at the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards, but I am going out on a limb and picking Bale for his transformative performance as the polarizing 46th vice president of the United States.
Bale previously won for his performance as professional boxer Dicky Ecklund in The Fighter in 2011, and I think voters will, once again, applaud his dedication to his craft of continually going through physical transformations to fully immerse himself in the role.
Best Actress
- Yalitza Aparicio – Roma as Cleodegaria “Cleo” Gutiérrez
- Glenn Close – The Wife as Joan Castleman
- Olivia Colman – The Favourite as Anne, Queen of Great Britain
- Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born as Ally Maine
- Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? as Lee Israel
Aparicio, along with her co-star, de Tavira, in the Supporting Actress category, are the only two nominees who did not receive a corresponding nomination at either the Golden Globes or SAG Awards, which doesn’t bode well for a win here.
McCarthy earned her second nomination and first as a leading lady but will get overlooked by the showier, louder performances.
This three-way race has been fun to watch throughout the awards season, with first-time nominees Colman and Gaga picking up wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, respectively, but it’s hard to envision a scenario where voters don’t award 71-year-old Close on her seventh nomination to earn her first win after an illustrious film career.
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali – Green Book as Don Shirley
- Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman as Philip “Flip” Zimmerman
- Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born as Bobby Maine
- Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? as Jack Hock
- Sam Rockwell – Vice as George W. Bush
Rockwell, last year’s winner in this same category for his performance in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, has very limited screentime as the eventual 43rd president of the United States, so don’t expect a repeat victory.
BlacKkKlansman seems to be more recognized for the ensemble, rather than individual performances, so Driver is out. Cooper and Gaga carry the buzz and praise for A Star Is Born, so Elliott, this year’s oldest first-time acting nominee, isn’t winning.
Grant has the narrative to win, playing a hilariously flamboyant drug dealer who gets roped into Lee Israel’s forgery. However, Ali will win this in a cakewalk as he has done all awards season, but many questioning whether he is a co-lead alongside Mortensen.
Best Supporting Actress
- Amy Adams – Vice as Lynne Cheney
- Marina de Tavira – Roma as Sofía
- Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk as Sharon Rivers
- Emma Stone – The Favourite as Abigail Masham
- Rachel Weisz – The Favourite as Sarah Churchill
In a perfect world, Stone and Weisz would be the co-winners of the award. They are extraordinary as distant cousins who fight for the affection and attention of Queen Anne.
It’s difficult picking a “favourite” amongst them, so they’ll likely cancel each other out. Adams was expected to triumph at the SAG Awards, following King’s snub, but Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place) was the surprise winner, likely resulting in Adams’ continued search for her elusive Oscar after six nominations.
In a world where Roma sweeps, de Tavira could snatch the win, but there hasn’t been a true sweep since 2003’s The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King won all eleven of its nominations.
King has been the consistent recognition for If Beale Street Could Talk and will likely be awarded her first Oscar after three recent Primetime Emmy wins.