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Purdue shooting for 3rd straight Big Ten title, but Painter says it’s a ‘crap shoot’

Purdue head coach Matt Painter speaks during the Big Ten men's NCAA college basketball media day Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Rosemont, Ill. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)
Purdue head coach Matt Painter speaks during the Big Ten men's NCAA college basketball media day Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024, in Rosemont, Ill. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

(AP) — Purdue has won 63 of its last 74 games and two straight Big Ten championships, played in the national title game in April and has the conference’s preseason player of the year among its three returning starters.

All that makes the 14th-ranked Boilermakers the favorite to win the league again.

Coach Matt Painter said whichever team finishes on top in the first season of an 18-team Big Ten will be the one that stays healthy, makes its own breaks and maybe gets a little lucky.

“It’s just a crap shoot,” he said. “It’s good that people pick you to win your league, but it really means nothing. If you are there in the first week of March, then it does mean something.”

Braden Smith is the preseason player of the year and joined by returning starters Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn from the team that won a school-record 34 games. Four other players in the rotation also are back.

Seven of the 18 teams were in the NCAA Tournament last season — Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Michigan State and conference newcomer Oregon.

How Oregon and the other West Coast teams fit in and how all 18 handle greater travel demands are unknowns that make it hard to predict a pecking order. Painter said navigating the season will be difficult. For his team, the first month includes games against No. 2 Alabama, No. 18 Marquette and possibly No. 24 Mississippi at a Thanksgiving event.

“And that’s the one thing when you play a challenging schedule like we have in nonconference, that you have to get yourself prepared because it is such a bear when you get to Big Ten play,” Painter said.

Besides Purdue, Big Ten teams in the preseason AP Top 25 are No. 17 Indiana, No. 22 UCLA and No. 25 Rutgers.

Who’s back

G Braden Smith, Purdue, 6-0, 170, Jr: Big Ten preseason player of the year averaged 12 points, 7.5 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game. He was the only player in NCAA history to have at least 450 points, 290 assists and 250 rebounds in a season.

F Payton Sandford, Iowa, 6-8, 215, Sr.: Averaged 16.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.7 assists. His 94 3-pointers led the Big Ten, and he was second in free-throw shooting (91.1%).

G Ace Baldwin Jr., Penn State, 6-1, 190, Gr.: He was conference defensive player of the year with 2.67 steals per game, most by a Big Ten player since 1992-93. He averaged 14.2 points and 6 assists.

F Dawson Garcia, Minnesota, 6-11, 234, Sr.: Averaged a team-best 17.6 points and 6.7 rebounds. He had 20-plus points 12 times, including three 30-point games.

G Bruce Thornton, Ohio State, 6-2, 215, Jr.: Led Buckeyes with 15.7 points, 4.8 assists and 1.2 steals per game. His 4-to-1 assist-turnover ratio was second-best in the country.

Top transfers

C Oumar Ballo, Indiana, 7-0, 265, Sr.: The two-time All-Pac-12 first-team pick had 1,273 points, 867 rebounds, 109 assists, 76 steals, and 140 blocks in 132 career games with Arizona and Gonzaga. His teams were 112-20 in games in which he played.

C Vladislav Goldin, Michigan, 7-1, 250, Gr.: He was on the 2023 Florida Atlantic team that reached the Final Four. Last season he averaged 15.7 points and 6.9 rebounds. He pulled his name out of the NBA draft to follow his coach, Dusty May, to Michigan.

F Great Osobor, Washington, 6-8, 250, Sr.: He was Mountain West player and newcomer of the year for Utah State. He averaged 17.7 points and 9 rebounds, shot 57.7% from the field and blocked 50 shots.

G Myles Rice, Indiana, 6-3, 185, So.: He was Pac-12 freshman of the year and an all-conference first-team pick for Washington State, averaging 14.8 points, 3.1 rebounds and 3.8 assists.

G Kylan Boswell, Illinois, 6-2, 205, Jr.: He averaged 9.6 points and scored in double figures 20 times for Arizona. His 50 steals were most by an Arizona player since 2016-17.

Top freshmen

G/F Ace Bailey, Rutgers, 6-10, 200: Consensus five-star prospect and top-five national recruit by Rivals, ESPN and 247Sports. He averaged 33.4 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.9 blocks at McEachern High in Powder Springs, Georgia.

G Dylan Harper, Rutgers, 6-6, 215: Top-five national recruit who averaged 23 points for Don Bosco Prep in Ramsey, New Jersey. Son of retired 15-year NBA player Ron Harper and brother of ex-Rutgers player Ron Jr.

F Bryson Tucker, Indiana, 6-7, 207: Five-star prospect out of Bishop O’Connell in Arlington, Virginia, is a consensus top-30 recruit who excels in the mid-range.

F Will Riley, Illinois, 6-8, 195: National top-10 recruit for the 2025 class who reclassified to the Class of 2024. Averaged 26.5 points, 6 rebounds and 4.1 assists for The Phelps School in Pennsylvania.

F Derik Queen, Maryland, 6-10, 246: Consensus five-star and top-15 prospect played three seasons at Montverde Academy in Florida. He led Montverde to a 33-0 record with 16.4 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.

On the coaching front

Eric Musselman was hired at Southern California after Andy Enfield left for SMU. Musselman has extensive experience at the pro and college levels. He had five NCAA Tournament appearances and 20 or more wins in eight of his nine seasons at Nevada and Arkansas.

Dusty May, who led Florida Atlantic to the 2023 Final Four, was hired at Michigan following six winning seasons with the Owls. The Wolverines have missed two straight NCAAs and plummeted to 8-24 in Juwan Howard’s final season.

Jake Diebler takes over for Chris Holtmann at Ohio State. Diebler, who had been associate head coach since 2021, was named interim coach following Holtmann’s firing in February and went 6-2 with wins over Purdue and Nebraska.

Danny Sprinkle replaces Mike Hopkins at Washington after turning around Utah State in his only season with the Aggies. Utah State won 28 games and the Mountain West regular-season title and won a game in the NCAA Tournament. Washington hasn’t gone to the tournament since 2019.