Want to play in Super Bowl LIII? Score points
If you are hoping to see your team play in Super Bowl LIII, they better get to scoring.
So far in 2018, each of the top 5 offenses is eclipsing 29 points per game, bringing the league-wide average to the highest it’s ever been at 24.1 points per game.
So why the focus on offense?
As of November 1 (before Thursday Night Football), of the aforementioned 2018 team scoring leaders, none have a top-5 scoring defense. Los Angeles comes in at sixth, allowing 19.4 points per game.
2018 has been the year of the aerial attack. There have been 1.8 touchdowns passes per game, which is also a league record. Several years were tied for the previous mark of 1.6—1947, 148, 1965, 2013, 2014 and 2015.
A factor in this offensive output has been a statistically lower percentage of turnovers. Only 12.2 percent of offensive drives end in a turnover, which is 2.5 percentage points lower than the all-time record of 14.7 percent in 2000.
The past two seasons have seen Super Bowl matchups of top-5 scoring offenses (Philadelphia, Atlanta, New England twice), and the Denver Broncos in 2015 were the last team to win a Super Bowl without a top-5 scoring offense.
You have to go back to 2010 (Baltimore vs. San Francisco) to find a Super Bowl where both teams were 10th or worse in scoring offense. Baltimore came in at number 10, San Francisco at number 11.
Kansas City (36.6), New Orleans (33.4), Los Angeles Rams (33.0), New England (29.9) and Pittsburgh (29.1) all represent current division leaders that have won by an average of more than 12 points.
Here’s how some of the top-5 offenses have fared against each other this year, plus some games in the future that could be high-scoring affairs.
Keep in mind: Kansas City, New England and Pittsburgh are all in the AFC. The Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints are in the NFC.
September 16: Kansas City 42, Pittsburgh 37
October 14: New England 43, Kansas City 40
November 4: Los Angeles Rams 35 at New Orleans Saints 45
November 19: Kansas City at Los Angeles Rams (played in Mexico City, Mexico)
December 16: New England at Pittsburgh
December 23: Pittsburgh at New Orleans