How accurate have Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions been for central Indiana?
INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — Punxsutawney Phil is set to make his next prediction tomorrow for Groundhog Day. The tradition is simple, if the groundhog sees his shadow, then it means six more weeks of winter. If not, it will be an early spring. So how accurate have these Groundhog Day predictions been for central Indiana?
To determine if the prediction was right, we compared the average temperature from Feb. 3 to March 16 in Indianapolis to the original prediction. If temperatures were above normal in this six week stretch then it was an early spring. Below-normal temperatures equated to a longer winter.
In the last 5 years, Phil has had only two of his five predictions pan out. For 2022, his prediction of six more weeks of winter fell just short with temperatures just barely above average. The best stretch of predictions was from 2014 to 2016 when Phil correctly predicted 3 years in row.
Overall, these predictions are a flip of the coin and Phil hasn’t been noticeably better than a 50/50 shot here in central Indiana. Phil’s predictions in the last 10 years were right exactly 50% of the time for our area.
