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All Indiana Politics analysts: Low poll turnout could bring surprises for Primaries

Primary predictions from AIP panelists

INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — With crowded fields, uncertain weather, and low early turnout, our All Indiana Politics team is bracing for the possibility of Primary Election surprises.

“The smaller the numbers, the more chance there is for something unusual to happen in a race,” Republican Tom John said. He joined WISH-TV’s Daybreak alongside Democrat Dana Black for a look at the early hours of the vote.

“Unfortunately, the weather is not cooperating today,” Black said. “I’m already hearing thunder and lightning in the background. So, you know, rain has a tendency to tamp down voter turnout. However, I think it is imperative to all who to recognize this is their opportunity to have a say in this government. They call it a citizen government for a reason.”

With Jennifer McCormick the only Democrat in the race for governor, Black is watching the Republican race with interest.

When pressed on which candidate McCormick would match up well against, Black said, “I’ll be honest, I would like to see Suzanne Crouch. It would be fantastic to know that by November, Indiana will have a female as our governor. I think that’s an exciting opportunity for women and young girls to see two women go head to head for that top seat in the state.”

The polls suggest a Crouch victory would be an upset and that Senator Mike Braun is the front-runner. That said, John is cautious about calling the race too soon.

He said, “But one thing I’ll say is polls when you’re talking primaries in particular are based on assumptions. So it’ll be interesting to see what the turnout looks like, whether those assumptions are right. I think you could see a strong run from (Brad) Chambers or (Eric) Doden or even Crouch.”

We also talked to John and Black about the heated and wide-open 5th District Congressional race. To see their answers, watch the interview above.

Tom John and Dana Black are part of News 8’s Primary Election coverage as featured analysts of the All Indiana Politics team.