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Monitoring stronger storm chance for Tuesday

Mon evening forecast – Feb 26, 2024

INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — We had a PERFECT start the workweek with record breaking highs as Indy hit 73 today. This broke the old record of 68 that was set in 1998.

We’re in for another day with near record high temperatures Tuesday, but this will bring about the possibility of severe weather.

Monday night: We’ll settle into a fairly mild night with the chance for scattered showers and storms as we get closer to sunrise Tuesday.

There is a shot for isolated instances of hail that could reach severe criteria, which is one inch in diameter at the bare minimum. In general, a few storms at the very least may contain smaller hail early Tuesday morning.

Lows will only drop into the mid 50s. This will most certainly be a record breaking warm night for Indy as the record warm low is 51 from 1876.

Tuesday: Once we get through sunrise Tuesday, we will enter a brief dry period that will extend into the early afternoon hours.

This is where the forecast gets more uncertain. A warm front is expected to rise northward during the afternoon hours. This is when we begin to enter the timeframe for severe storms, but there are some caveats with this.

There will be a cap in place that could suppress storm development as the front moves north. We also need to watch just how far north this front goes. Regardless, any storm that develops Tuesday afternoon/evening with this front will pose an all hazards risk.

By Tuesday night, extra development looks to occur as a cold front draws closer to Indiana. This will also showcase potential for strong to severe activity. Overall, there is a bit of a wider timeframe, but there are some uncertainties with how exact placement of things/evolution plays out.

With that said and done, the overall risk area has not changed a whole lot as there remains a Slight Risk (level 2/5) across a large part of Indiana. It is possible this risk gets upgraded.

Highs look to get into the upper 60s to low 70s. Indy’s record high for Tuesday is 73 from 1996. One other thing to note is that it will be quite windy with gusts approaching 30-40 MPH by the latter half of the day.

Wednesday: Showers and a few storms will continue into pre-dawn Wednesday before the cold front swings into the picture. This will cause a massive temperature drop and potential for some snow showers as winds shift to come out of the northwest.

Highs will occur just after midnight Wednesday before we tumble down towards the 20s by Wednesday night. Wind gusts will also be up to 30-40 MPH at times.

8-Day Forecast: A quick return to calm conditions will arrive by Thursday with temperatures slightly below normal in the 40s to close out February. It won’t take long before we embark on another warming trend. By the first weekend of March, highs look to already cruise back into the 60s.